Trading Macro Wiki
Synthesised progressively from macro, geopolitics, commodities, policy, and regime-focused source material. This folder now lives inside trading/ as its causal-layer subdomain: trading/macro/ covers regimes, drivers, policy, and transmission, while the rest of trading/ covers market expression, execution, and risk.
Core Frameworks
| Article | Summary |
|---|---|
| regimes | The central macro page: what regimes are, how growth, inflation, policy, liquidity, dollar, commodity, and risk-on or risk-off environments behave, and how regime transitions develop |
| drivers | The forces that create or shift regimes, including war, sanctions, commodity plumbing, inventory, trade and capital flows, and funding or credit stress |
| actors | The major macro actors and their constraints, with commodity trading houses treated as balance-sheet-backed intermediaries between states, producers, and end markets |
| translation | How macro becomes market behavior: transmission mechanisms, cross-market effects, narratives, catalysts, reflexivity, indicators, and practical market interpretation |
| macro-for-traders | The practical bridge from macro understanding to trade expression: cross-asset mapping, central banks, economic indicators, and macro-specific risk management |
| global-macro-practice | Practitioner-level global macro: how discretionary macro managers specialize, express themes, manage liquidity and drawdown, and evolve from broad macro views into narrow executable edge |
Crisis, Debt, and Fragility
| Article | Summary |
|---|---|
| financial-crises | The canonical crisis page: displacement, credit expansion, euphoria, fragility, contagion, lender-of-last-resort policy, and practical crisis indicators |
| big-debt-cycles-and-deleveraging | The debt-cycle template: leverage buildup across short cycles, deflationary versus inflationary deleveraging, beautiful deleveraging, pushing on a string, and the policy mix that determines how debt stress resolves |
| sovereign-debt-and-default | Sovereign default, debt intolerance, domestic versus external debt, inflation as partial default, capital-flow bonanzas, and the sovereign-banking crisis loop |
| fragility-and-antifragility | Taleb’s systems framework: fragile vs robust vs antifragile, convexity, optionality, barbell logic, intervention-driven hidden fragility, and skin in the game |
| reflexivity | Soros’s framework for participant bias, feedback loops, disequilibrium, and self-reinforcing versus self-correcting macro and market processes |
Money, Rates, and Policy Order
| Article | Summary |
|---|---|
| easy-money-and-the-fed-asset-channel | The modern post-2008 Fed regime: ZIRP, QE, reserve creation, the asset channel, search for yield, invisible bailout dynamics, and policy dependence on market support |
| interest-rates-and-the-price-of-capital | Interest as the price of time: capital allocation, cheap-money distortion, asset bubbles, financial repression, and why rates matter far beyond bond markets |
| dollar-system-and-safe-assets | The modern dollar system explained through reserve demand, safe-asset scarcity, uphill capital flows, reserve accumulation, incomplete challengers, and why dollar dominance can persist through visible U.S. weakness |
| gold-standard-and-deflation | The interwar monetary regime: gold convertibility, war debts, reparations, central-bank coordination failure, deflationary adjustment, and why leaving gold changed the system |
| reserve-currency-and-empire-cycles | The long-cycle framework for reserve-currency rise and decline, internal order versus disorder, external rivalry, debt excess, and the strategic conditions behind changing world orders |
Global Structure and Imbalances
| Article | Summary |
|---|---|
| global-imbalances | The canonical page for savings-investment imbalances, surplus and deficit economies, inequality-driven demand weakness, and how domestic distribution spills into trade and capital flows |
| deglobalization-and-fragmentation | Globalization as a geopolitical order under strain: shipping security, demographic contraction, manufacturing geography, food vulnerability, and how fragmentation changes regional viability |
| hedge-funds-and-alpha | Why hedge funds mattered as institutions: alpha, long-short flexibility, leverage, liquidity edge, incentive structure, and their dual role as market correctors and fragility transmitters |